Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Stochastic versus multiphysics representations

Berner, Judith; Ha, So-Young; Hacker, P.; Fournier, Aime; Snyder, M.

doi:10.1175/2010MWR3595.1

Berner, J., Ha, S. -Y., Hacker, J. P., Fournier, A., & Snyder, C. M. (2011). Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Stochastic versus multiphysics representations. Monthly Weather Review, 139, 1972-1995. doi:10.1175/2010MWR3595.1

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Abstract

A multiphysics and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme are employed to represent model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Both model-error schemes lead to significant improvements over the control ensemble system that... Show moreA multiphysics and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme are employed to represent model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Both model-error schemes lead to significant improvements over the control ensemble system that is simply a downscaled global ensemble forecast with the same physics for each ensemble member. The improvements are evident in verification against both observations and analyses, but different in some details. Overall the stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme outperforms the multiphysics scheme, except near the surface. Best results are obtained when both schemes are used simultaneously, indicating that the model error can best be captured by a combination of multiple schemes. Show less

Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3595.1

Details

Author(s)

Judith Berner-NCAR/UCAR

So-Young Ha-NCAR/UCAR

J. P. Hacker

Aime Fournier-NCAR/UCAR

Chris M. Snyder-NCAR/UCAR

Title

Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Stochastic versus multiphysics representations

Publication Title

Monthly Weather Review

Date

2011-06-01

Volume

139

Issue

Pages

1972-1995

Resource Type

article

Peer Review

Refereed

Copyright Information

Copyright 2011 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

Publisher's Version of Record

http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3595.1

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http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7sb469r

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Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Stochastic versus multiphysics representations

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