Advancements in hurricane prediction with NOAA's next‐generation forecast system
Chen, J. ‐H., Lin, S. ‐J., Magnusson, L., Bender, M., Chen, X., Zhou, L., … Harris, L. (2019). Advancements in hurricane prediction with NOAA's next‐generation forecast system. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 4495-4501. doi:10.1029/2019GL082410
We use the fvGFS model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to demonstrate the potential of the upcoming United States Next-Generation Global Prediction System for hurricane prediction. The fvGFS retrospective forecasts initialized with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weath... Show moreWe use the fvGFS model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to demonstrate the potential of the upcoming United States Next-Generation Global Prediction System for hurricane prediction. The fvGFS retrospective forecasts initialized with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data showed much-improved track forecasts for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season compared to the best-performing ECMWF operational model. The fvGFS greatly improved the ECMWF's poor track forecast for Hurricane Maria (2017). For Hurricane Irma (2017), a well-predicted case by the ECMWF model, the fvGFS produced even lower five-day track forecast errors. The fvGFS also showed better intensity prediction than both the United States and the ECMWF operational models, indicating the robustness of its numerical algorithms. Show less
